What began as a commercial project to deliver broadband from low-earth orbit has become an instrument of statecraft. Over the past four years Starlink — Elon Musk’s SpaceX constellation — has been repeatedly deployed at the centre of conflicts from Ukraine and Gaza to Venezuela and Iran, prompting sharper scrutiny of the line between private technology and national power.
SpaceX’s technical edge and its burgeoning government business explain why. The company now operates the world’s largest low‑earth orbit constellation, with more than 9,400 active satellites and a fresh Federal Communications Commission clearance to deploy 7,500 next‑generation craft. Improved V2.0 Mini satellites, intersatellite laser links and a falling unit cost per bit have turned Starlink into a scalable, hard‑to‑replicate platform for global connectivity.
That engineering lead has translated into strategic leverage. In wartime and crisis, Starlink can restore or substitute communications when terrestrial networks are cut, and users — from civilians to military units — can exploit its high throughput and low latency. The Ukrainian military’s use of terminals to support reconnaissance drones and target acquisition is the most cited example; humanitarian groups and field hospitals in Gaza and Venezuela have also relied on the service to keep operations running when local networks failed.
Who pays for that capability has evolved rapidly. SpaceX has received more than $9bn in contracts and funding from U.S. government agencies and allied programmes, ranging from NASA procurement to Department of Defense business. A high‑profile, roughly $1.8bn engagement tied to SpaceX’s Starshield offering is illustrative: the company is packaging Starlink technology into explicitly military and intelligence services, converting battlefield utility into a durable, high‑margin government revenue stream.
Commercial demand has surged alongside government spending. Starlink subscriptions rose from roughly 69,000 in June 2021 to about eight million by November 2025 — an increase of 114‑fold — and SpaceX’s private valuation climbed to about $800bn by the end of 2025. Analysts foresee further expansion: Morgan Stanley projects up to a billion users by 2040, while SpaceX is already rolling out direct‑to‑cell and phone‑connectivity services, having linked some six million handsets as of September 2025.
The result is a business model that blends consumer scale with sticky, high‑value government contracts. Starlink’s ‘first mover’ occupation of radio spectrum and orbital slots, combined with its dense fleet and proprietary laser networking, creates steep barriers for rivals and hands SpaceX a quasi‑monopolistic position in critical slices of orbital infrastructure.
That dominance has political consequences. Chinese state media and other critics characterize Starlink as a tool of U.S. intervention: when SpaceX provided free or subsidised connectivity during recent crises, commentators framed the service as supporting U.S. foreign‑policy objectives. The involvement of U.S. officials, including a reported conversation between former president Donald Trump and Musk over service to Iran, has fuelled concerns that a private company is acting as an extension of American strategic reach.
The week’s other international finance and policy developments underline how politics and markets remain tightly coupled. U.S. domestic politics injected fresh volatility into markets after Trump publicly questioned placing his economic adviser Kevin Hassett in the Federal Reserve chair role, boosting odds for Kevin Warsh in prediction markets and prompting sharp moves in the dollar and precious metals. Trump also revived rhetoric on Greenland — suggesting tariffs against countries opposing a U.S. claim — while seven European states confirmed the deployment of 37 military personnel to Greenland, signalling allied unease about unilateral U.S. manoeuvres in the Arctic.
On Iran, the U.S. president said he had decided to pause military action, a decision described internally as self‑admonition rather than the result of external persuasion. The diplomatic tug‑of‑war extended to Moscow; Iran’s president spoke to Vladimir Putin and framed Western actors as directly involved in recent unrest.
Markets absorbed these political shocks unevenly. Micron’s ceremony for a planned $100bn memory fabrication campus underpinned a rally in its shares, while silver surged more than 12% this week and the gold‑to‑silver ratio fell below 50 for the first time in 14 years — signalling heightened retail and speculative interest in industrial and monetary metals. Cryptocurrencies were also firmer, with Bitcoin and Ethereum each up around 5% for the week.
The Starlink story is not simply about technology or profit. It highlights a far larger shift in which commercial scale tech platforms provide states with capabilities that were once the preserve of national militaries and intelligence services. That creates new dilemmas for allies and rivals about dependence, regulation and reciprocity.
Companies and governments will now face hard choices: how to regulate private ownership of globally distributed critical infrastructure; how to prevent the militarisation of ostensibly civilian services; and whether to build rival systems or partner with incumbents whose strategic alignments may diverge from those of prospective customers. The answers will shape the next decade of both warfare and markets.