China’s industrial sector finished 2025 with modest momentum: value added for enterprises above the designated size rose 5.2% year on year in December on a real (price‑adjusted) basis, and 0.49% month on month. For the full year, industrial value added expanded 5.9%, signs that manufacturing growth has regained some footing after earlier headwinds.
The breakdown reveals a clear pattern of upgrading and uneven demand. Manufacturing rose 5.7% in December while mining advanced 5.4% and utilities barely inched up 0.8%. High‑technology and transport equipment categories led the gains — computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing jumped 11.8%, and makers of railway, ship, aerospace and other transport equipment surged 9.2%.
Traditional heavy industries told a different story. Steel output fell 3.8% in December and cement production dropped 6.6%, reflecting continuing weakness in construction and property investment — the main domestic source of demand for these commodities. The power sector’s near‑flat performance and the modest decline in product sales rate to 98.2% suggest demand softness in parts of the domestic economy.
Ownership and foreign linkages also show nuance. Joint‑stock enterprises posted the strongest growth at 5.8%, private firms grew 4.2% and state‑controlled enterprises expanded 3.9%, while foreign and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan‑funded firms grew only 2.7%. The pattern points to resilient domestic capital and a mixed outlook for foreign‑facing businesses.
On the product side, notable trends include a continued structural shift within autos: overall vehicle output fell 2.8% to 3.412 million units in December, but new energy vehicle production rose 8.7% to 1.791 million, showing EVs are sustaining their momentum even as conventional vehicle demand softens. Output of chemicals, general and specialised equipment, and certain high‑value electronics also posted robust gains, underlining a pivot toward higher value chains.
Trade and utilization metrics are mixed. Export delivery value for above‑scale industrial enterprises registered a nominal rise of 3.2% in December, while the aggregate product sales rate slipped and the utilities sector lagged, signaling lingering slack. These figures imply that price swings and shifts in final demand will be decisive for industrial performance in the near term.
For global markets the data matter: weaker steel and cement production signal softer Chinese demand for raw materials, weighing on commodity markets and on upstream exporters. Conversely, strong growth in electronic equipment and transport manufacturing reinforces China’s role in supplying higher‑end capital goods and components to world markets, and accelerates technology upgrading in domestic industry.
Policymakers will be watching the mix closely. Continued strength in high‑tech and EV segments eases concerns about an across‑the‑board slowdown, but persistent weakness in construction‑related output and only moderate export gains strengthen the case for calibrated stimulus measures aimed at lifting demand rather than broad industrial subsidies.