Iran’s Foreign Minister Frames Cautious Optimism After Oman Talks, Flags Israel as a Wildcard

Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi framed Tehran’s negotiating position after indirect Oman talks, saying the format is not the problem but unreasonable U.S. demands could derail progress. Analysts welcomed the small diplomatic opening while warning that military options remain viable and that Israel could sabotage any deal.

A military Osprey aircraft alongside a helicopter flying over arid landscape in daylight.

Key Takeaways

  • 1Araghchi held Iran’s first press conference since the Feb. 6 indirect talks with the U.S., stressing that indirect talks are not an obstacle but that unreasonable demands could block agreement.
  • 2Analyst Sadadian sees the Oman talks as a faint diplomatic opening but warns that the possibility of military confrontation persists without a careful, transparent negotiating framework.
  • 3Analyst Aldestani warned that Israel remains a potential disruptive force capable of undermining U.S.-Iran de-escalation efforts.
  • 4Continuation of the negotiation process, Araghchi said, depends largely on the attitude and flexibility of the United States.
  • 5The situation remains fragile: outcomes range from modest confidence-building measures to breakdown and potential escalation driven by third-party actions or domestic pressures.

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Strategic Analysis

This exchange of public signals reveals a classic diplomatic gambit: Tehran is signaling willingness to engage while setting public conditions that domestically justify caution. By emphasizing that the indirect format is not itself problematic, Araghchi leaves space for technical, mediated diplomacy; by highlighting ‘unreasonable demands’ he raises the bar for concessions the Iranian government can accept without political cost. The insistence that continuation ‘depends on the U.S. attitude’ shifts responsibility to Washington, where competing domestic constituencies—hardliners resisting concessions and pragmatists favoring risk reduction—will influence the outcome. Equally important is the role of regional actors, notably Israel, which has both the motive and means to disrupt arrangements it perceives as inimical to its security. In practical terms, expect short, cautious follow-ups: confidence-building measures that do not require heavy political capital, contingency communication channels to prevent escalation, and parallel quiet diplomacy with regional actors. A sustained breakthrough would require simultaneous progress on contentious issues and visible assurances that third-party spoilers cannot easily reverse gains.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

Iran’s foreign minister, Araghchi, held his first domestic press conference since indirect talks between Tehran and Washington in Oman on February 6, using the platform to set expectations about the negotiation process and Tehran’s red lines. He emphasized that the indirect format itself is not an impediment to reaching an agreement, but warned that “unreasonable claims and unrealistic demands” from the other side could derail progress. Araghchi made clear that whether the dialogue continues will hinge on the attitude of the United States.

Iranian political analyst Sadadian described the February 6 talks as a small diplomatic opening amid heightened tensions, but cautioned that the option of military confrontation remains on the table and should not be discounted. He argued that the only realistic pathway toward an agreement is a careful, balanced and transparent negotiating framework designed to prevent misunderstandings or unilateral obstacles. That framework, he suggested, must include clear channels for verification and communication to reduce the risk of miscalculation.

Another analyst, Aldestani, reminded audiences that Tehran’s willingness to pursue diplomacy does not remove external threats to any deal; he singled out Israel’s role in the region as a potentially disruptive force. Aldestani urged Iranian vigilance, portraying Israel as a party that could seek to undermine de-escalation efforts through covert or overt actions that would complicate talks between Tehran and Washington.

The public briefing marks a notable moment: Iranian leadership is signaling a readiness to engage diplomatically while simultaneously managing domestic and regional audiences by highlighting the limits of compromise. Indirect negotiations with the United States reflect mutual caution—neither side appears willing to normalize direct talks yet both see value in reducing near-term risks. That posture keeps options open for both diplomacy and pressure.

For international observers, the comments matter because they define the fault lines that will determine whether this window of opportunity widens or snaps shut. The stated dependence on U.S. attitude points to the centrality of Washington’s strategic choices, internal politics and negotiating posture. At the same time, the repeated invocation of Israel as a spoiler underscores how third-party regional dynamics could override bi-lateral progress and rekindle broader conflict.

Looking ahead, a limited diplomatic track could produce incremental trust-building measures—mechanisms to avoid accidental escalation, confidence-building steps on sanctions relief or tacit understandings on proxy behavior—or it could collapse if either Washington or Tehran concludes the other’s demands are unacceptable. Israel’s potential intervention, domestic political pressures in both capitals, and the absence of direct talks all make the outcome uncertain and the risk of miscalculation persistent.

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