A recently circulated photograph showing a J‑15 carrier fighter carrying a new YJ‑15 anti‑ship missile has highlighted a notable upgrade in the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) carrier‑borne strike capability. The weapon appears to be a lighter, shipborne‑optimized derivative of the YJ‑12 family, traded down from roughly two tonnes to about one tonne to suit carrier aviation constraints. Reported performance — most prominently a claimed range approaching 800 kilometres — would push strike standoff well beyond the typical early warning and point‑defence envelopes of many surface action groups.
The pairing matters because it changes the calculus for carrier aviation. The J‑15, China’s first indigenous carrier fighter, has long been constrained by payload and range when operating from ski‑jump carriers. A slimmer, supersonic anti‑ship missile enables a single J‑15 to carry more heavy ordinance and to hand off strikes from safer distances, reducing exposure to shipborne air defences and long‑range interceptors. Supersonic dash speeds shorten reaction windows and raise the bar for midcourse intercepts, while a heavier warhead improves the chance of crippling medium and large surface combatants.
Tactically, the J‑15/YJ‑15 combination functions as a long‑range, mobile strike arm for carrier strike groups, extending their anti‑surface envelope and complicating adversary planning. Modern maritime combat is a contest of sensors, command networks and effectors; a faster, longer‑ranged missile is only as useful as the targeting and datalink architecture that supports it. China’s investments in over‑the‑horizon targeting, maritime reconnaissance and integrated battle management will therefore determine how frequently such missiles can be employed effectively at the cited ranges.
There are, however, limits to the headline capabilities. Against a blue‑water navy with layered airborne early warning, ballistic missile defence and integrated point‑defence, a single class of supersonic missiles is unlikely to be decisive. More advanced options — including hypersonic anti‑ship weapons, long‑range ballistic missiles, and distributed maritime strike assets — remain part of a broader Chinese effort to present multiple dilemmas to an opponent. In medium‑intensity maritime contests, though, the improved J‑15 loadout is a potent and cost‑effective tool.
Regionally, the introduction of a carrier‑launched supersonic anti‑ship missile shifts risk calculations for many Asian navies. Several regional surface fleets lack robust layered defences specifically tuned to defeat high‑speed sea‑skimming threats launched from stand‑off ranges. Planners in Tokyo, New Delhi, Canberra and Washington will need to account for a Chinese carrier wing that can plausibly threaten high‑value ships from beyond their current protective bubbles, accelerating investments in sensors, interceptors and cooperative engagement capabilities.
The appearance of the YJ‑15 on a carrier deck is best seen as a milestone in a longer trajectory. It demonstrates industrial refinement — a weight‑saving redesign for carrier operations — and operational thinking that privileges standoff, speed and salvo‑based engagement. Still, it is one node in a systemic contest: the true effect on naval balances will depend on how China integrates targeting networks, aerial tanking, electronic warfare and complementary strike systems into a cohesive doctrine for distant‑water power projection.