China’s Foreign Ministry on Feb. 12 broad‑sided Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Lai Ching‑te, branding any attempt to “rely on foreign forces” for independence as futile and “destined to fail.” Spokesperson Lin Jian used unusually stark language at a regular briefing, calling Lai a “peace breaker,” “crisis maker” and “war instigator,” and repeating Beijing’s insistence that Taiwan is part of China’s territory by history and law.
Lin’s comments follow recent public exchanges between Lai and Tokyo, in which Lai congratulated Japan’s new conservative leader, Sanae Takaichi, and expressed the wish to bolster “shared values.” Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office reacted in kind, with spokesperson Zhu Fenglian accusing Lai of pandering to Japan and of glossing over Tokyo’s colonial rule of Taiwan.
The confrontation is both rhetorical and strategic. For Beijing, depicting Lai as seeking foreign protection for de jure independence serves two audiences: domestic mainland publics, where firm stances on sovereignty are politically potent, and foreign governments, which Beijing warns against overt engagement with Taipei. The trope Lin used — likening attempts to “seek independence by leaning on others” to “ants shaking a tree” — is a familiar one in official discourse, intended to suggest futility while signaling resolve.
For Taipei and its partners, the episode underscores the delicate balancing act of engaging democratically elected Taiwanese leaders without crossing Beijing’s red lines. The DPP has long promoted closer ties with like‑minded democracies as a hedge against coercion; Beijing, in turn, frames such outreach as provocation and uses strong rhetoric to delegitimise Taipei’s international space.
The practical implications are mixed. Strong words do not automatically translate into military action, but they can accompany stepped‑up pressure: diplomatic protests, economic measures, and increased military activities around the Taiwan Strait. They also complicate Japan’s calculus; Tokyo faces domestic and regional pressures to deepen security ties with democracies in East Asia while managing a fraught relationship with China.
Against a backdrop of intensified great‑power competition, Beijing’s rebuke of Lai is likely to become a recurring theme in its toolkit — calibrated escalation designed to deter Taiwan’s formal moves toward independence while keeping options open. For observers, the key question is whether such rhetoric will be accompanied by more aggressive coercion or remain chiefly a signalling device meant to constrain Taipei and its partners.