Ren Zeping, a high-profile Chinese economist, used social media on Friday to signal renewed optimism for equities and commodities, saying both asset classes are poised to “launch a new offensive” after markets have arguably overreacted. His short post argued that people who make the biggest gains “look far, think deep and have foresight,” and urged investors to “embrace the Kondratiev cycle” rather than remain overly cautious.
The post included a colloquial quip — “slow bull, 老登负责慢，小登负责牛” — a tricky phrase that blends humor and market advice. In context Ren appears to be drawing a contrast between two investor archetypes: the conservative, slow-moving capital that preserves wealth, and the more nimble, opportunistic capital that captures the upside in a cyclical upswing. He advocates against being purely the former and signals a preference for positioning into a long-term cyclical recovery.
Ren’s comments matter because he is one of China’s most-followed independent economists and his views often reverberate through domestic market sentiment. In China, where retail investors still play a large role, influential analysts’ public remarks can help shape short-term flows. More broadly, a view that China’s commodity and equity markets are beginning a new leg higher has implications for global commodity exporters and investors watching China’s post-reopening growth dynamics.
The reference to the “Kondratiev wave” (康波周期) is notable: it invokes long-cycle thinking, implying that structural, multi-decade forces — technological shifts, investment waves and credit cycles — should guide positioning as much as short-term data. If market participants take that advice seriously, it could encourage longer-duration allocations to commodity-intensive sectors and Chinese equity exposure, altering cross-border capital flows.
Caveats remain. A single economist’s social-media view is not a policy directive, and China’s markets still face material headwinds: property-sector fragility, high corporate leverage in parts of the economy, and external demand risks. Moreover, calling for a cyclical recovery does not eliminate the risk of interim volatility; slow bulls, by definition, deliver gains over extended periods rather than in a single sprint.
Investors and policymakers will watch hard data and official signals to test Ren’s optimism: credit impulse, infrastructure and industrial investment, commodity import volumes, and equity market breadth. For global markets, the key question is whether this is sentiment-driven positioning around a narrative of long cycles, or the start of a sustained demand upswing that meaningfully lifts commodity prices and Chinese equity returns over the coming quarters.