China Starts the Year with Ample Liquidity: M2 Rises 9% as Deposits and Government Bond Financing Surge

China’s central bank data for January show broad money (M2) up 9% and an increase of 8.09 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, while total social financing expanded by 7.22 trillion yuan. Government bond issuance and short‑term bank credit powered the monthly financing increase, against a backdrop of plentiful interbank liquidity and low short‑term rates.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1M2 rose 9% YoY to 347.19 trillion yuan; M1 rose 4.9% and M0 2.7%.
  • 2January social financing increment was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan higher than a year earlier.
  • 3RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan in January; household and non‑financial corporate deposits both contributed.
  • 4RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January; government bond net financing was large at 976.4 billion yuan.
  • 5Interbank turnover and low weighted average rates (1.40% for interbank lending, 1.43% for pledged repo) signal abundant liquidity.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

The January figures reflect a policy mix leaning on ample liquidity and active fiscal financing to underpin the economy’s early‑year momentum. Large government bond issuance and strong deposit growth mean banks are well funded, and short‑term financing has expanded quickly; yet the data also show constrained growth in certain private‑sector credit channels. Policymakers face a trade‑off: maintain loose conditions to support growth and employment, or tighten the stance to prevent misallocation and build‑up of financial risks. A continuation of strong fiscal issuance implies Beijing is relying on direct spending to boost demand, while the central bank appears content to keep short‑term rates low to preserve credit flow. For international investors and trading partners, the immediate implication is muted upward pressure on yields and a supportive environment for domestic activity; the longer‑term questions concern the quality of credit growth and whether stimulus will translate into sustainable private‑sector investment rather than temporary cyclical gains.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

The People’s Bank of China published January monetary statistics showing an expansionary start to 2026: broad money (M2) grew 9% year-on-year to 347.19 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 8.09 trillion yuan in the month. Overall social financing — the broadest measure of credit flowing into the economy — stood at 449.11 trillion yuan at the end of January, up 8.2% year-on-year, and the monthly increment reached 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than a year earlier.

The stock of on‑balance‑sheet RMB loans to the real economy was 273.3 trillion yuan, up 6.1% from a year earlier, and RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January. Government bond issuance accounted for a large part of the new financing: outstanding government debt was 95.9 trillion yuan (a 17.3% rise year‑on‑year) and net government bond financing in January alone was about 976.4 billion yuan. Corporate bond net issuance also strengthened, with net financing of roughly 503.3 billion yuan for the month.

Structurally, the composition of the financing stock shows some notable shifts. RMB loans to the real economy still make up the largest share (60.9%) but that share has edged down compared with a year ago; by contrast, government bonds now account for 21.4% of total financing, up 1.7 percentage points year‑on‑year. Other credit instruments such as entrusted and trust loans remain small and broadly stable as proportions of the whole, while domestic equity financing for non‑financial firms continues to be limited.

Liquidity in interbank markets remained abundant. Narrow money (M1) rose 4.9% to 117.97 trillion yuan and currency in circulation (M0) increased 2.7% to 14.61 trillion yuan, with the PBoC net‑injecting 519.1 billion yuan in cash in January. Interbank activity surged: combined interbank lending, bond trading and repo turnover averaged 10.09 trillion yuan a day — a gain of 36.1% year‑on‑year. Weighted average interbank lending and pledged repo rates were low at 1.40% and 1.43% respectively, little changed from the prior month and well below a year earlier.

The external and cross‑border picture shows continued use of the yuan: cross‑border RMB settlement under the current account amounted to 1.49 trillion yuan in January, and direct‑investment RMB settlements totalled about 780 billion yuan. Foreign‑currency deposits held by Chinese institutions and households also rose sharply, with dollar‑denominated deposits at roughly $1.1 trillion, up 23.7% year‑on‑year.

Why this matters: the data point to ample system liquidity, sizeable fiscal financing and resilient household and corporate deposits at the start of the year. That combination supports near‑term activity through government spending and short‑term bank lending, but it leaves open questions about the transmission of credit to longer‑term private investment and the balance between monetary accommodation and financial stability. Analysts will watch whether credit growth broadens beyond government and short‑term instrument financing into longer‑term corporate and investment lending as the year progresses.

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