US FTC Intensifies Probe into Microsoft’s Cloud and AI Licensing, Raising Antitrust Stakes for Big Tech

The US Federal Trade Commission has escalated an investigation into Microsoft, issuing civil investigative demands to at least six rivals to examine whether licensing and product-bundling practices have impeded competition in cloud computing and AI. The probe targets licensing changes from 2019, questions about bundling AI, security and identity services, and seeks detailed data on AI training costs and data-centre operations.

Business professionals in a team meeting around a computer discussing work strategies.

Key Takeaways

  • 1FTC issued civil investigative demands to at least six Microsoft competitors over licensing, interoperability and bundling practices.
  • 2Investigators are focused on 2019 licence changes and whether they make it harder or costlier to run Windows, Office and related products on rival clouds.
  • 3Roughly one-third of inquiries concern Microsoft’s AI strategy and its close integration with OpenAI.
  • 4The probe echoes 1990s antitrust scrutiny of Microsoft and involves parallel review by UK regulators.
  • 5Outcomes range from no action to behavioural remedies or litigation; many investigations do not automatically lead to enforcement.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

This investigation is less about a single product and more about control over the software–compute stack that underpins modern enterprise IT and AI development. Microsoft sits at multiple pivotal points: it supplies the dominant desktop and productivity software, a major cloud platform, and a privileged partnership with OpenAI. That combination can produce lock‑in through licensing and integration even without explicit price hikes. Regulators have increasingly realised that the competitive harms of the AI era can arise from ecosystem engineering—making it technically and commercially unattractive to mix and match providers. If the FTC and international peers press for changes to licence terms or interoperability, the consequences would cascade: enterprises would gain more flexibility to choose cloud compute providers, rivals would find it easier to compete on price and features, and the structure of commercial AI partnerships might shift. But enforcement faces hurdles. Proving intent and quantifying harm in complex technical markets is difficult, and political and legal pushback can blunt remedies. Expect protracted information exchanges, negotiation over narrow behavioural fixes, and likely litigation if the FTC pursues enforcement. For Microsoft, the short-term pain is reputational and market-based; the long-term stakes are whether regulators can curb the strategic advantages that flow from combining OS, cloud and AI under a single commercial umbrella.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

The US Federal Trade Commission has stepped up an inquiry into Microsoft’s commercial practices, seeking to determine whether the software giant has used its Windows, Office and AI-related products to hinder rivals’ ability to sell cloud computing services. In recent weeks the FTC issued civil investigative demands to at least six companies that compete with Microsoft in enterprise software and cloud services, scrutinising licensing terms, product interoperability and alleged bundling of security, identity and AI features.

The investigation, which began in the final months of the Biden administration and has continued into the current presidency, is overseen by FTC chair Andrew Ferguson. The requests for information resemble formal subpoenas and ask for granular data on Microsoft’s licensing changes introduced in 2019, as well as detailed records on AI model training costs, data access, and the operation of its data centres and compute capacity.

Regulators are probing whether Microsoft’s licence terms make it more difficult, costly or impossible for customers to run Windows, Office and certain other products on rivals’ cloud platforms, and whether Microsoft has tied AI, security or identity services to its own cloud offerings in ways that foreclose competition. About a third of the FTC’s questions focus on Microsoft’s AI strategy and its large investment in OpenAI, exploring whether Microsoft’s integration with the startup reduced competitive activity in areas it once pursued independently.

Microsoft has defended the technical boundaries it imposes, saying differences in functionality and security requirements can limit interoperability across cloud environments. The company also points to a challenging threat environment: repeated cyberattacks have increased customer demand for integrated security features, which Microsoft argues drive some product design and bundling choices.

The probe recalls the landmark 1990s antitrust fight over Microsoft’s bundling of Internet Explorer into Windows, a dispute that reshaped US competition law for platform software. This time the stakes extend into cloud computing and foundational AI, markets where control over software stacks and access to compute and models can confer durable advantage and shape who wins the AI race.

For customers, competitors and investors the outcome matters. If regulators find evidence of anticompetitive conduct, they could press for behavioural remedies or changes to licensing that make it easier to run enterprise products and AI workloads on rival clouds. Conversely, a decision not to pursue enforcement would leave intact current commercial arrangements and Microsoft’s deep integration with OpenAI, with broad implications for cloud competition, pricing and future AI product development.

Share Article

Related Articles

📰
No related articles found