The United States has ordered the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Middle East, but Beijing’s Xinhua news agency reports it will take at least a week for the vessel and its escorts to reach waters near Iran. The deployment will create a temporary “dual-carrier” posture in the region — a highly visible show of force intended to squeeze Tehran as bilateral diplomacy resumes in Geneva.
Trump administration envoys are due to meet Iranian representatives in Geneva on February 17, with Oman continuing to act as intermediary. The American delegation will include Jared Kushner and a figure identified in Chinese dispatches as “Witkof.” The talks follow a first, indirect round in Muscat on February 6 and come amid hardened public positions: Washington is pressing Iran to abandon enrichment and the possession of fissile material, while Tehran insists on its right to peaceful nuclear energy and refuses to negotiate away its missile and defence capabilities.
President Trump publicly framed the naval reinforcement as leverage: he told reporters the extra carrier would be needed if talks failed, and promised that it would depart rapidly if an agreement were reached. His broader rhetoric has been bellicose — he has warned repeatedly of military action and even suggested regime change would be an acceptable outcome — language that U.S. military and administration officials have said they are preparing to back up with planning for a protracted campaign if ordered.
American planners face practical limits. Xinhua noted the Ford strike group was operating in the Caribbean, and the transit to the Persian Gulf takes time; that delay gives both sides a diplomatic window even as it raises the stakes for any sudden escalation. U.S. officials speaking to international wire services have warned that any campaign this time would be more complex and expansive than last year’s limited strikes, potentially targeting Iranian government and security institutions while accounting for likely Iranian reprisals against U.S. bases across the Middle East.
Tehran’s response has been categorical. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri (reported in Chinese as 阿拉格齐) has insisted that missile and defensive capabilities are non-negotiable, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned it would strike U.S. bases in the region if attacked. That asymmetric threat — ballistic missiles, proxy forces and the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — limits the straightforward utility of carrier-based power and complicates allied calculations in Gulf capitals.
The diplomatic calendar is also telling: U.S. envoys in Geneva are scheduled to meet Iranian representatives on the morning of February 17 and will hold a separate three-way session with Russian and Ukrainian delegates that afternoon. Oman’s mediation reflects a preference among Gulf states for quiet diplomacy, even as Washington signals readiness to use force. The unfolding mix of high-profile military signaling and resumed talks underlines a basic paradox: deterrence designed to drive concessions can also constrict the room for compromise and increase the risk of miscalculation.