US equity markets staged an intraday V-shaped swing on Tuesday, opening mixed, sliding sharply and then recovering to close marginally higher, with the Dow up 0.07%, the S&P 500 up 0.10% and the Nasdaq up 0.14%. Large-cap technology names were bifurcated: Apple led gains after announcing a global Apple Experience event on March 4, while Google, Microsoft and Tesla underperformed. The day’s narrative was one of uneven optimism about growth and persistent uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
Precious metals suffered heavy losses as investors pared back positions that price in easier policy. COMEX futures fell sharply — gold by about 2.3% to roughly $4,896/oz and silver by around 3.9% to about $73.5/oz — with spot prices tracking similar declines. Markets interpreted Federal Reserve commentary and CME pricing as signalling that a near-term cut is unlikely, boosting the real yield outlook and pressuring non-yielding stores of value.
Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed messages that left markets treading carefully. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and other speakers suggested there remains room to hold policy tight, while Goolsbee floated the possibility of multiple cuts if inflation meaningfully recedes. The CME Fed Funds tool assigns only a single-digit probability (7.9%) to a March 25bp cut and a roughly 24% chance of a cumulative 25bp cut by April, reinforcing an expectation of rate stability for now.
On the corporate front, Apple’s announcement of a coordinated New York, London and Shanghai event — with Shanghai’s session at 10pm local time on March 4 — drove a notable re-rating of its shares. The company is widely expected to unveil refreshed MacBook Pros with M5 Pro/Max silicon, a new entry-level MacBook, Studio Display 2 and an iPhone 17e reportedly powered by an A19 chip with 8GB RAM to support on-device AI features. That product roadmap underscores Apple’s dual strategy of advancing custom silicon for productivity and embedding AI-capable hardware at lower price points, a trend that will shape competitive dynamics across chips, software and services.
Chinese ADRs were mixed and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index slipped marginally, reflecting the combined influence of idiosyncratic corporate news and global macro drivers. Stocks with China exposure displayed dispersion: logistics and e-commerce names varied on company-specific performance, while domestic policy and consumer trends remain watchpoints for investors. The market is now focused on the Fed minutes due out in the early hours tomorrow Beijing time, which could crystallize expectations and trigger another round of repositioning.
For global investors the takeaways are straightforward: near-term monetary policy appears more likely to stay restrictive than markets had hoped, pressuring gold and other rate-sensitive assets, while episodic technology events and product cycles continue to move individual equities. The juxtaposition of AI-driven hardware announcements and a still-hawkish central bank creates an environment where sector rotation and volatility are likely to persist until macro guidance becomes clearer.